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Shadow of a Doubt - April 2021

 

NCAS Public Lecture Series

Twenty Years of Weird Science at Goldsmiths

 YouTube Live Event with Q and A 

Chris French, PhD
Emeritus Professor of Psychology, Goldsmiths, University of London
Founder / Head of the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit

Saturday, April 10, 1:30pm US/Eastern (UTC-04:00)


NCASVideo YouTube Channel:


For more information, call the NCAS Skeptic Line at 240-670-NCAS (6227).
ncas@ncas.org

Following his retirement in October of last year, Professor Chris French will reflect on the work of the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit (APRU), founded in the year 2000. His talk will describe his own journey from being a believer in the paranormal to becoming a skeptic, as well as his reasons for founding the APRU. He will give some examples of its work in the areas of both anomalistic psychology and parapsychology, as well as considering the future prospects of both disciplines.

Chris French is an Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London and head of its Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit. He is a Fellow of the British Psychological Society and of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and a Patron of UK Humanists. He has published over 150 articles and chapters covering a wide range of topics. His main current area of research is the psychology of paranormal beliefs and anomalous experiences. He frequently appears on radio and television casting a skeptical eye over paranormal claims. His most recent book is Anomalistic Psychology: Exploring Paranormal Belief and Experience.

There will be an online question-and-answer segment after the talk.

https://www.ncas.org/2021/03/april-10-twenty-years-of-weird-science.html


How to Watch and Participate in this Online Event:

1) Use a supported browser... https://www.youtube.com/supported_browsers
2) Use the link https://youtu.be/gPG6L8SAQHc .
3) The live stream begins shortly before 1:30pm US/Eastern (UTC-04:00) on Saturday, April 10, 2021.
4) To post questions, you must be signed in to a Google account.
5) Post your questions in the chat window to the right of the video player when the live stream is active.
6) Click into where it says "Say something..." and begin typing (up to 200 characters). Then click the send icon .

Along with your question, please post what city or town you're in.


Annual Membership Meeting
Following the talk and the question-and-answer segment, the YouTube presentation will end, and an online meeting with NCAS members will begin on Zoom.  Check your email inbox during the last few minutes of the Q and A. All NCAS members will receive information for joining the Zoom meeting.  The "Zoom Client for Meetings" can be downloaded for free at https://zoom.us/download.  To join, just enter the Zoom Meeting ID number and Passcode provided in the email...no Zoom account is needed.  There's no formal agenda for the meeting.  Discussion of potential lecture speakers/topics is certainly welcome, as well as any other NCAS-related subject.

We'd love to share refreshments as we usually do in person, but we'll need your help to psychically de-materialize our supplies and re-materialize them at your location!  (Please distribute the refreshments to others, if you're able.)


Message to Current and Prospective NCAS Members
In response to the economic hardship and other uncertainties that our members may be facing, NCAS has automatically extended by one year all memberships that expire in 2020 or later.  Payment will be accepted for new memberships as well as renewals for 2019 and before: new and renewed will have a bonus year added.  Each life member may sponsor a new one-year membership at no charge.  (Double life memberships may sponsor two.)  Send your sponsored member's name and contact information to ncas@ncas.org. This offer will continue until further notice.


Torn From Today's Headlines
By Scott Snell
NCAS Speaker's Appearance on ABC-TV's "The Con" was a Victory for Skeptics

December 2020 NCAS speaker Bob Nygaard, a private detective who specializes in the investigation of confidence crimes, most notably psychic fraud, appeared on "Psychics," the March 17 episode of "The Con," a weekly ABC-TV series narrated by Whoopi Goldberg.  Nielsen Media Research data indicate that 1.621 million people saw the program, which portrayed Nygaard and his anti-psychic cause in a completely supportive, essentially promotional way.  Longtime skeptics may be hard-pressed to recall a skeptical person and cause receiving such a prominent showcase, especially one so generously provided by a national network news organization.  ("The Con" is produced by ABC News.)

The director of the show was Starling ("Star") Price, well-known among skeptics for Penn & Teller's "Bull*hit," which ran on Showtime for many years.  That almost certainly explains why Nygaard received a top-notch portrayal.

This will probably help Nygaard help others for months or even years to come.  He can share the online link with any new clients and tell them, "Here's what I can do to help you," and/or "Watch this and warn your friends and family about what can happen to them if they're vulnerable and a self-proclaimed psychic takes advantage."

Conceivably this will be a major breakthrough in protecting the public from con artists.

In the weeks since, Nygaard says he's been "...inundated with phone calls, emails, twitter messages, instant messages, etc.  It’s going to take me quite a while to sort through everything and get back to the people who I can help."


One of the on-camera expert contributors to the program was mentalist Mark Edward, who will be giving an online talk on April 17 (see next item).


April PhACT Lecture
Our skeptical neighbors to the north, the Philadelphia Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), will host their next online event on Saturday, April 17 at 2 PM ET.  Professional mentalist Mark Edward will discuss the new horizons of psychic fraud and swindle that have emerged during the pandemic.  Event details at http://www.phact.org/meetings.php.


Torn Too From Today's Headlines
By Scott Snell
The National Weather Service Publicizes a Superstition for a Good Cause

On April 7th, the National Weather Service and its "Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors" wanted Americans to take a "selfie" in their extreme-weather safe places (e.g., closets, basements, etc) and post it with the hashtag #SafePlaceSelfie.  All well and good, I think most everyone would agree.

But then the NWS added a peculiar detail: to do so at 11:11 AM local time.  "What is the significance of 11:11am local time?  The exact time of 11:11 is often associated with 'making a wish.' We chose that time because wishing or hoping is not an effective preparedness action. So instead of making a wish at 11:11, take the time to post your #SafePlaceSelfie. Please also note, if you can’t post at that time in your area, do not worry. We still want you to post at any time of day. Since we will start with Eastern Time, 11:11am will occur at each time zone every hour until Hawaiian time."

I was unfamiliar with this superstition, and perhaps many other people were as well.  Should the NWS publicize obscure superstitions, even for a good cause?

Maybe if the superstition were already famous (such as "Friday the 13th is a day of bad luck"), leveraging it wouldn't be as questionable.



Speaking of Superstitions
March 24 marked the 20th anniversary of a fluke event that the superstitious would likely consider a harbinger of doom.  During a Spring Training baseball game in Tucson, pitcher Randy Johnson of the Arizona Diamondbacks threw a pitch that killed a mourning dove in flight:

Several years ago, Newsweek consulted experts who confirmed that the hapless bird was a mourning dove:

Based on my (admittedly) inexpert knowledge of superstitions, shouldn't we skeptics expect that killing a dove, even accidentally, would bear grave consequences for the perpetrator?

In fact it appears that quite the opposite occurred.  Johnson enjoyed a remarkable season that culminated in a World Series title.  In May he tied a record (which still stands) for the most strikeouts (20) over nine innings.  In July he set the record (still standing) for most strikeouts in a relief appearance.  In an August game, he struck out three batters on three pitches each (a so-called "immaculate inning").  Johnson earned three of the Diamondbacks' four World Series game victories that year, including Games 6 and 7, and shared (with teammate Curt Schilling) the World Series Most Valuable Player award.  By any measure, including the other seasons of his Hall of Fame career, it was an outstanding season.

So the "omen hypothesis" doesn't fit the facts in this case.  On the other hand, there is a history of belief that animal sacrifice brings good fortune.

Seems that either a very good or very bad 2001 season for him would've been "explainable" by superstition.  Would a mediocre (for him) season have been difficult for a superstitious person to explain?  Maybe not, for if a superstar has a mediocre season, wouldn't that be considered bad?  Conceivably any outcome could've been found consistent with a superstitious belief.
 

Torn From Yesterday's Headlines
By Scott Snell
The Pandemic, One Year Later

Have a look back at the April 2020 Shadow of a Doubt:



NCAS Board Elections: Electronic Voting
The 2021 NCAS election is underway.  In early April, your e-mail inbox should've received a single-cast secret ballot from "elections@ncas.org via SurveyMonkey <member@surveymonkeyuser.com>".  (NCAS will receive information indicating who voted, but nothing to indicate who cast each ballot.)  Please vote by April 30, 2021.

Note that voters will not be at risk for spamming as a result of participating...SurveyMonkey has a zero-tolerance spam policy:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/legal/acceptable-uses-policy/


AmazonSmile: Thanks to our members who are supporting NCAS!
When holiday shopping at smile.amazon.com, you'll find the same low prices, vast selection, and convenient shopping experience as Amazon.com, with the added bonus that a portion of the purchase price (0.5%) goes to NCAS! It's simple and automatic, and it doesn't cost you anything!

AmazonSmile's disbursements to NCAS in the fourth quarter of 2020 came to $34.53, meaning that $6900 of purchases were designated in support of NCAS.  (As an example of how NCAS can put that money to good use, it's enough to cover more than 100 minutes of a Montgomery County lecture room rental.)

Thanks again to our members who have chosen to support NCAS!

For more information:
https://smile.amazon.com/about
https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazon-launches-amazonsmile-simple-automatic-way-customers


Shadow Light
Some members and contacts of NCAS receive a postal notification of this and every new monthly Shadow of a Doubt.  The Shadow Light postcard announces the monthly lecture and highlights of the electronic Shadow of a Doubt, which is available online at ncas.org/p/shadow.html.  NCAS thereby reduces Shadow production and postage costs.  To further reduce costs, members and contacts can opt out of postal notification altogether, while continuing to receive Shadow of a Doubt via e-mail.  To opt out, send us an e-mail at ncas@ncas.org.


Time to Renew?
Be sure to check your renewal date above your postal address on the Shadow Light postcard. Send any queries to ncas@ncas.org.  Use the online membership form to renew.
https://www.ncas.org/p/shadow.html

September 11 - It Came from the Science Fair!

Presented by Adam Ruben, PhD

Writer, Comedian, and Molecular Biologist

Saturday, September 11, 2021 1:30 pm   

B-CC Regional Services Center 

4805 Edgemoor Lane 2nd Floor (West Room) Bethesda, MD 

Directions: http://tinyurl.com/bcccenter

NCAS is returning to live presentations.

What are the most common mistakes kids make when preparing projects for science fairs?  What can we learn from these events about the way science is taught and understood?  And can we all please agree, once and for all, that science has learned all it needs to learn from measuring classmates' heart rates before and after playing video games?  In this talk, scientist/comedian Adam Ruben will share some of the most bizarre, most inadvisable, least scientifically rigorous science projects he's judged and talk about their implications for the future of science education.

Adam Ruben is a writer, comedian, and molecular biologist.Adam has performed stand-up comedy and told stories on stage for more than 20years. He has appeared on the Food Network, the Travel Channel, the WeatherChannel, Discovery International, Netflix, and NPR, and he currently hosts theshows Outrageous Acts of Science and What On Earth? on the Science Channel and is a writer for the Emmy-nominated PBS Kidsshow Elinor Wonders WhyAdam is the author of two books, Surviving Your Stupid, Stupid Decision to Goto Grad School (Random House, 2010) and PinballWizards: Jackpots, Drains, and the Cult of the Silver Ball (Chicago ReviewPress, 2017), and writes the monthly science humor column Experimental Error in the otherwise respectable journal Science.

To avoid possible spread of covid-19, there will be no refreshments at these talks for the next few months.

Due to continuing concerns about covid-19, all attendees, whether vaccinated or not, are required to wear masks or other face covering while attending this talk. 

See also https://montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/face-coverings.html

April 10 - Twenty Years of Weird Science at Goldsmiths: Some Reflections

Presented by Chris French
Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London

Saturday, April 10, 2021

1:30 pm (Online Virtual Talk)

The link to view the live stream of this talk is
https://youtu.be/gPG6L8SAQHc

Following his retirement in October of last year, Professor Chris French will reflect on the work of the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit (APRU), founded in the year 2000. His talk will describe his own journey from being a believer in the paranormal to becoming a skeptic, as well as his reasons for founding the APRU. He will give some examples of its work in the areas of both anomalistic psychology and parapsychology, as well as considering the future prospects of both disciplines.

Q&A via live chat will follow the talk. 

 
Chris French is an Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London where, in 2000, he founded the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit. He is a Fellow of the British Psychological Society and of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and a Patron of UK Humanists. He has published over 150 articles and chapters covering a wide range of topics. His main current area of research is the psychology of paranormal beliefs and anomalous experiences. He frequently appears on radio and television casting a skeptical eye over paranormal claims. His most recent book is Anomalistic Psychology: Exploring Paranormal Belief and Experience.

Shadow of a Doubt - March 2021

  •  March lecture: "How faith in Nature's Goodness Leads to Harmful Fads, Unjust Laws, and Flawed Science" by Alan Levinovitz
  • Exclusive opportunity for NCAS members - Special zoom Q&A after lecture
  • Message to current and prospective NCAS members - Extending memberships
  • December 2020 NCAS Speaker to appear on ABC-TV's "The con"
  • March PhACT lecture
  • April NCAS Lecture - Christopher French will present "Twenty Years of Weird Science at Goldsmiths: Some Reflections" 
  • NCAS Board elections - call for candidates
  • NCAS and the reckoning of time 
  • Torn from today's headlines - 20th and 40th coincidence anniversaries
  • AmazonSmile supports NCAS
  • Shadow Light
  • Time to renew
  • Click to read March Shadow

Shadow of a Doubt - March 2021

 

Alan Levinovitz, PhD
Author / Associate Professor of Religious Studies, James Madison University

Saturday, March 13, 1:30pm US/Eastern (UTC-05:00)

NCASVideo YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/V4WkseN3iTg

For more information, call the NCAS Skeptic Line at 240-670-NCAS (6227).
ncas@ncas.org

Appeals to the wisdom of nature are among the most powerful arguments in the history of human thought. Yet Nature (with a capital N) and natural goodness are not objective or scientific. Author Alan Levinovitz will discuss how modern Western culture has divinized nature, and will highlight the many dangers of substituting simple myths for complicated realities.

 

Alan Levinovitz is associate professor of religious studies at James Madison University, where he teaches and researches a wide range of topics: classical Chinese philosophy, religion and science, and even toy design.  After studying religion and philosophy at Stanford, he taught English in China for two years before returning to the University of Chicago and earning a PhD in Religion and Literature. Now he lives in Charlottesville, Virginia, with his wife, daughter, cat, hermit crabs, and an extensive collection of strange plants and unusual minerals.​

In addition to his academic work on everything from the meaning of capital letters to the meaning of nonsense, his writing on religion, philosophy, and science has been featured in Aeon, The Atlantic, The Washington Post, Slate, Wired, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Vox, NPR and elsewhere.  He is also the author of The Gluten Lie and Other Myths About What You Eat.

There will be an online question-and-answer segment after the talk.

https://www.ncas.org/2021/02/march-13-natural-conversation-with-alan.html

How to Watch and Participate in this Online Event:

1) Use a supported browser... https://www.youtube.com/supported_browsers

2) Use the link https://youtu.be/V4WkseN3iTg .

3) The live stream begins shortly before 1:30pm US/Eastern (UTC-05:00) on Saturday, March 13, 2021.

4) To post questions, you must be signed in to a Google account.

5) Post your questions in the chat window to the right of the video player when the live stream is active.

6) Click into where it says "Say something..." and begin typing (up to 200 characters). Then click the send icon .

Along with your question, please post what city or town you're in.

Exclusive Opportunity for NCAS Members!

Following the talk and the question-and-answer segment, the YouTube presentation will end, and an online "reception" with our speaker and NCAS members will begin on Zoom.  Check your email inbox during the last few minutes of the Q and A. All NCAS members will receive information for joining the Zoom meeting with our speaker.  The "Zoom Client for Meetings" can be downloaded for free at https://zoom.us/download.  To join, just enter the Zoom Meeting ID number and Passcode provided in the email...no Zoom account is needed.

Message to Current and Prospective NCAS Members

In response to the economic hardship and other uncertainties that our members may be facing, NCAS has automatically extended by one year all memberships that expire in 2020 or later.  Payment will be accepted for new memberships as well as renewals for 2019 and before: new and renewed will have a bonus year added.  Each life member may sponsor a new one-year membership at no charge.  (Double life memberships may sponsor two.)  Send your sponsored member's name and contact information to ncas@ncas.org. This offer will continue until further notice.

December 2020 NCAS Speaker to Appear on ABC-TV's "The Con"

Bob Nygaard, a private detective who specializes in the investigation of confidence crimes, most notably psychic fraud, will appear on an upcoming episode of "The Con," a weekly TV series narrated by Whoopi Goldberg.  "The Psychic Con" episode will air on ABC-TV on Wednesday, March 17 at 10 PM ET.

March PhACT Lecture

Our skeptical neighbors to the north, the Philadelphia Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), will host their next online event on Saturday, March 20 at 2 PM ET.  Speaker Ian Bryce of Australian Skeptics, Inc will present "Adventures of an Australian Skeptic."  As ASI's "Challenge Coordinator," Dr. Bryce administers the A$100,000 Challenge for anyone who can demonstrate a paranormal or psychic ability or powers unknown to science. Event details at http://www.phact.org/meetings.php.

April NCAS Lecture
Christopher French, Emeritus Professor of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London, will present "Twenty Years of Weird Science at Goldsmiths: Some Reflections," discussing the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit (APRU) that he founded in 2000.  Saturday, April 10 at 1:30 PM ET, live on the NCASVideo YouTube channel.

NCAS Board Elections: Call for Candidates

Are you an NCAS member who wants to take a leadership role in the skeptics movement?  The NCAS annual board of directors election is fast approaching.  As a board member, you can channel (non-psychically) your talent and energy (the non-woo kind) into educating the public, and pick up some fun skills along the way.  Send an email to ncas@ncas.org by March 31 for more information.

NCAS and the Reckoning of Time
There are many ways to reckon the passage of time...the orbital period of Earth around the Sun and the orbital period of the Moon around Earth are part of the common standard.  For longer periods of time, there are alternative "clocks" available.  Using the orbital periods of other planets around the Sun (Jupiter ≈ 12 years, Saturn ≈ 29.5 years) is a fun way of making someone feel younger when their birthday rolls around.  For example, I (Scott Snell) am still 4, in "Jupiter years."  Are there any other "fun" clocks out there, you may ask?  Why yes, and NCAS is "synced" perfectly with one of them!  NCAS was born in Spring 1987.  Several weeks after the first NCAS public meeting on March 29, Brood X ("ten") periodical cicadas emerged en masse (as they always do, every 17 years) from underground, eventually taking flight and <ahem> fulfilling the reproductive phase of their lifecycle.  That happened in 1987, in 2004, and will again in 2021 (probably starting in early May).  For a month or more, some Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states will be indundated with billions of these noisy insects.  So, while you're enjoying (or "enjoying") this wonder of nature around us, you can wish NCAS a happy 2nd birthday using your Magicicada septendecim clock!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodical_cicadas

https://cicadas.uconn.edu/brood_10/

Torn From Today's (Yesterday's) Headlines
By Scott Snell
Coincidence Anniversaries

This month marks the anniversaries of two coincidences involving TV entertainment programs:

20th:

TV: It's the 20th anniversary (March 4, 2001) of the premiere of "The Lone Gunmen," a short-lived spinoff of "The X-Files."  The episode's villains hack into the controls of a commercial airliner, setting it on course to collide with the World Trade Center's South Tower.  Fortunately our heroes are able to restore control to the crew at the last possible moment, and the pilot steers the plane clear of the tower.

Reality: Six months later, commercial airliners were hijacked and collided with the World Trade Center towers.

The episode:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcZ6HXIOmYE

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lone_Gunmen_(TV_series)

(Note that the current Wikipedia page incorrectly states that the episode's flight originated in Boston, as did the two September 11 flights that destroyed the World Trade Center.  In fact, the flight was bound for Boston.)

40th: 

TV: It's the 40th anniversary (March 18, 1981) of the premiere of "The Greatest American Hero."  The episode's villains plan to assassinate the President of the United States.  Fortunately our hero, a schoolteacher named Ralph Hinkley, thwarts their plan.

Reality: Twelve days later,  an attempted assassination of the President of the United States nearly succeeds.  The would-be assassin's name?  John Hinckley, Jr.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greatest_American_Hero#Ralph's_surname

As I wrote in other Shadow columns about coincidences (the January 2013 and November 2015 editions), "We're surrounded by an incredible number of occurrences and details, only some of which we even notice, so we should expect some random 'alignments' of two to happen now and then. We never notice the many misalignments, so when an alignment occurs, it seems remarkable, and could be quite affecting."

AmazonSmile: Thanks to our members who are supporting NCAS!

When holiday shopping at smile.amazon.com, you'll find the same low prices, vast selection, and convenient shopping experience as Amazon.com, with the added bonus that a portion of the purchase price (0.5%) goes to NCAS! It's simple and automatic, and it doesn't cost you anything!

AmazonSmile's disbursements to NCAS in the fourth quarter of 2020 came to $34.53, meaning that $6900 of purchases were designated in support of NCAS.  (As an example of how NCAS can put that money to good use, it's enough to cover more than 100 minutes of a Montgomery County lecture room rental.)

Thanks again to our members who have chosen to support NCAS!

For more information:
https://smile.amazon.com/about
https://press.aboutamazon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amazon-launches-amazonsmile-simple-automatic-way-customers

Shadow Light
Some members and contacts of NCAS receive a postal notification of this and every new monthly Shadow of a Doubt.  The Shadow Light postcard announces the monthly lecture and highlights of the electronic Shadow of a Doubt, which is available online at ncas.org/p/shadow.html.  NCAS thereby reduces Shadow production and postage costs.  To further reduce costs, members and contacts can opt out of postal notification altogether, while continuing to receive Shadow of a Doubt via e-mail.  To opt out, send us an e-mail at ncas@ncas.org.

Time to Renew?
Be sure to check your renewal date above your postal address on the Shadow Light postcard. Send any queries to ncas@ncas.org.  Use the online membership form to renew.
https://www.ncas.org/p/shadow.html