Saturday, April 14, 2012

April 14 - Frederick L. Joutz - Forecasting vs. Fortune Telling

Saturday, April 14, 2012, 1:30pm
Bethesda Regional Library
7400 Arlington Rd
Bethesda, MD [map]

(Slides from Talk)

How is scientific forecasting different from reading tea leaves? How well do economic forecasts perform, and why should we feel more confident in them than in psychic predictions? Frederick L. Joutz will describe the scope of modern forecasting, and the tools and assumptions economists use in making forecasts in the Federal government. Dr. Joutz will discuss how well these forecasts perform and how much confidence we should place in them.

Dr. Joutz’s primary research is in economic modeling and forecasting. He contributes quarterly forecasts of nearly 25 U.S. macroeconomic variables to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (formerly the National Bureau of Economic Research / American Statistical Association Quarterly Outlook) and the Economic Survey International, ESI by the Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute (CESifo Group). In addition, he has been an associate editor of Energy Economics and the International Journal of Forecasting. He has served as an economic consultant and technical expert to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and several federal government agencies, the International Monetary Fund, and private corporations. Dr. Joutz is also a Senior Fellow of the U.S. Energy Economics Association. He is a professor in the Department of Economics at The George Washington University.

This event is free and open to the public, so bring your friends!
The talk will be followed by refreshments and social time.